China is poised to announce a national carbon emissions trading system this week. The start of the program is likely to be far less ambitious than originally hoped for. Nevertheless its overarching goal remains admirable.
China likely won’t address many details yet, experts in China and the U.S. say. There are issues of monitoring, reporting, and verification. The program still needs baseline data. And the Chinese are unlikely to say much about the regulatory requirements or what sectors will be covered. There’s a decent chance that the trading scheme will cover the power sector.
It’s not surprising that China is not yet ready to launch a full-scale program. As a point of reference, California took several years to launch its own cap and trade program. China’s program will be much larger than California’s. Just four years ago, China launched seven pilot programs in emissions trading in various locations across the nation. At the same time, it set an extremely ambitious target to kick off a national program this year.
Experts say to watch the process in which China incrementally builds up its emissions trading program to a national scale. The irony is that China is seizing the initiative to construct a national emissions trading program using capital markets. That’s the farthest thing from the Trump Administration, which instead is hell bent to promote the coal industry and withdraw from the Paris accord.